TGM's two-stage DCF values Curtiss-Wright Corporation (CW) between $203.58 and $388.92 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $277.49. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.4%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$562.85 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +28.1% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.4% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 8.1%/yr | 9.4% | $203.58 |
| Base case | 11.1%/yr | 8.4% | $277.49 |
| Optimistic | 14.1%/yr | 7.4% | $388.92 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 13, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $261.71 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$562.85
Market-Implied Growth
+28.1%/yr
vs +13.9% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$203.58 – $388.92
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for CW (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $443.4M · 0.04B shares · net debt $765.0M
Estimated Fair Value
$277.49
-50.7% vs $562.85
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 11.1%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $562.85; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.4% | $354 | $391 | $437 | $497 | $578 |
| 7.4% | $288 | $312 | $341 | $377 | $421 |
| 8.4% | $241 | $258 | $277 | $301 | $329 |
| 9.4% | $206 | $218 | $232 | $249 | $268 |
| 10.4% | $179 | $188 | $199 | $211 | $224 |
