TGM's two-stage DCF values Curtiss-Wright Corporation (CW) between $200.27 and $380.33 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $272.31. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$558.90 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +28.4% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 8.1%/yr | 9.5% | $200.27 |
| Base case | 11.1%/yr | 8.5% | $272.31 |
| Optimistic | 14.1%/yr | 7.5% | $380.33 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 11, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $271.00 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$558.90
Market-Implied Growth
+28.4%/yr
vs +13.9% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$200.27 – $380.33
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for CW (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $443.4M · 0.04B shares · net debt $765.0M
Estimated Fair Value
$272.31
-51.3% vs $558.90
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 11.1%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $558.90; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.5% | $346 | $382 | $426 | $482 | $558 |
| 7.5% | $283 | $306 | $334 | $368 | $410 |
| 8.5% | $237 | $253 | $272 | $295 | $321 |
| 9.5% | $203 | $215 | $229 | $244 | $263 |
| 10.5% | $177 | $186 | $196 | $207 | $221 |