Curtiss-Wright Corporation (CW) DCF Valuation
Why we don't show a single “fair value” for CW
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($349.22) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$758.00 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +35.8% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.4% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 5.6%/yr | 9.4% | $182.15 |
| Base case | 8.6%/yr | 8.4% | $248.77 |
| Optimistic | 11.6%/yr | 7.4% | $349.22 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $267.95 | |
Current Price
$758.00
Market-Implied Growth
+35.8%/yr
vs +8.7% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$248.77
model output — not a price target
CW DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for CW (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $443.4M · 0.04B shares · net debt $765.0M
Estimated Fair Value
$312.92
-58.7% vs $758.00
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 8.6%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $758.00; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.4% | $419 | $455 | $501 | $560 | $639 |
| 7.4% | $338 | $360 | $388 | $421 | $463 |
| 8.4% | $280 | $295 | $313 | $334 | $359 |
| 9.4% | $238 | $248 | $260 | $274 | $290 |
| 10.4% | $205 | $213 | $221 | $231 | $242 |
About Curtiss-Wright Corporation
Curtiss-Wright Corporation (CW), along with its affiliated entities, delivers highly engineered products, comprehensive solutions, and a variety of services to a global client base across the aerospace, defense, general industrial, and power generation sectors. The company strategically organizes its operations into three primary divisions: Aerospace & Industrial, Defense Electronics, and Naval & Power. The Aerospace & Industrial segment specializes in manufacturing components for industrial vehicles, such as electronic throttle control systems, joysticks, and transmission shifters. It also supplies advanced sensors, control mechanisms, and electromechanical actuation parts for both commercial and military aircraft. Furthermore, this division offers sophisticated surface treatment services, including shot peening, laser peening, and specialized coatings. In the Defense Electronics segment, Curtiss-Wright provides a wide array of offerings. These include commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) embedded computing board-level modules, dedicated equipment for data acquisition and flight test instrumentation, and integrated subsystem solutions. The segment also develops instrumentation and control systems, turret aiming and stabilization technologies, and advanced weapons handling systems. Its capabilities extend to avionics, general electronics, flight test apparatus, and complete aircraft data management solutions. The Naval & Power division furnishes a critical range of products and services for nuclear power facilities and associated equipment manufacturers. This includes various hardware, pumps, pump seals, control rod drive mechanisms, valves, fastening systems, specialized containment doors, airlock hatches, spent fuel management solutions, and fluid sealing products. For naval applications, particularly serving the U.S. Navy, this segment supplies propulsion and auxiliary equipment such as coolant pumps, power-dense compact motors, generators, steam turbines, valves, and secondary propulsion systems. Additionally, it provides essential ship repair and maintenance services. Curtiss-Wright Corporation, which traces its origins back to 1929, maintains its corporate headquarters in Davidson, North Carolina.
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Aerospace & Defense
- CEO
- Lynn Bamford