Chevron Corporation (CVX) DCF Valuation
Transparent DCF models put Chevron Corporation (CVX)'s fair value in a range of $165.43 – $173.76 — the low end is TGM's conservative base case (5% FCF growth, 10% discount), the high end the analyst consensus (FMP). Today's price of $186.76 sits above that range — by these conservative assumptions it looks richly valued; the reverse-DCF below is the better lens for a high-growth name.
Reverse DCF: at today's $186.76, the market is pricing in roughly +6.5%/yr free-cash-flow growth over the next decade (at a 10% required return) — versus its actual 5-year FCF CAGR of +39.7%. The price assumes a slowdown from its track record — a potential value signal if growth holds.
Current Price
$186.76
Fair-Value Range
$165.43 – $173.76
Market-Implied Growth
+6.5%/yr
vs +39.7% 5Y actual
CVX DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Illustrative model — not investment advice. Defaults to a conservative base case; the analyst (FMP) DCF, where available, is shown as a reference below.
Base inputs: FCF $22.3B · 1.99B shares · net debt $35.5B
Estimated Fair Value
$165.43
-11.4% vs $186.76
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 5.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $186.76; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0% | $210 | $222 | $235 | $252 | $272 |
| 9.0% | $178 | $186 | $195 | $206 | $218 |
| 10.0% | $153 | $159 | $165 | $173 | $181 |
| 11.0% | $134 | $138 | $143 | $148 | $154 |
| 12.0% | $119 | $122 | $125 | $129 | $133 |
About Chevron Corporation
Chevron Corporation functions as a global energy and chemicals powerhouse, orchestrating its diverse operations worldwide. The company's business is organized into two primary divisions: Upstream and Downstream. The Upstream segment focuses on the full lifecycle of crude oil and natural gas, from their initial exploration and development to production and subsequent transportation. This also encompasses the processing, liquefaction, transit, and regasification of liquefied natural gas (LNG), as well as pipeline transport of crude oil and the movement, storage, and sale of natural gas. Additionally, this segment manages a facility dedicated to converting natural gas into liquid fuels. In contrast, the Downstream segment is tasked with refining crude oil into a variety of petroleum products. Its activities include the merchandising of crude oil, refined goods, and lubricants, in addition to the creation and distribution of renewable fuels. This division is also responsible for moving crude oil and refined products using a range of methods, including pipelines, ships, motor vehicles, and rail cars. Furthermore, it produces and markets bulk petrochemicals, industrial-grade plastics, and additives for both fuels and lubricants. Beyond these core ventures, Chevron is also involved in financial management, debt financing, insurance underwriting, real estate development, and various technology-driven enterprises. Founded in 1879, the company operated as ChevronTexaco Corporation until it officially became Chevron Corporation in 2005. Its corporate headquarters are situated in San Ramon, California.
- Sector
- Energy
- Industry
- Oil & Gas Integrated
- CEO
- Michael K. Wirth