TGM's two-stage DCF values Chevron Corporation (CVX) between $191.00 and $390.69 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $267.85. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$210.71 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +7.2% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 9.5%/yr | 8.5% | $191.00 |
| Base case | 12.5%/yr | 7.5% | $267.85 |
| Optimistic | 15.5%/yr | 6.5% | $390.69 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 8, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $171.02 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$210.71
Market-Implied Growth
+7.2%/yr
vs +22.8% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$191.00 – $390.69
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for CVX (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $18.2B · 1.99B shares · net debt $35.5B
Estimated Fair Value
$267.85
+27.1% vs $210.71
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 12.5%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $210.71; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $356 | $404 | $467 | $556 | $689 |
| 6.5% | $278 | $307 | $342 | $388 | $450 |
| 7.5% | $226 | $245 | $268 | $295 | $330 |
| 8.5% | $190 | $203 | $218 | $236 | $258 |
| 9.5% | $162 | $172 | $183 | $196 | $210 |
