TGM's two-stage DCF values Cintas Corporation (CTAS) between $65.15 and $120.19 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $87.37. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.8%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$204.63 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +30.3% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.8% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 6.4%/yr | 9.8% | $65.15 |
| Base case | 9.4%/yr | 8.8% | $87.37 |
| Optimistic | 12.4%/yr | 7.8% | $120.19 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 2, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $144.82 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$204.63
Market-Implied Growth
+30.3%/yr
vs +9.1% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$65.15 – $120.19
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for CTAS (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.7B · 0.40B shares · net debt $2.1B
Estimated Fair Value
$87.37
-57.3% vs $204.63
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 9.4%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $204.63; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.8% | $109 | $120 | $132 | $148 | $169 |
| 7.8% | $90.54 | $97.39 | $106 | $115 | $127 |
| 8.8% | $76.86 | $81.73 | $87.37 | $93.97 | $102 |
| 9.8% | $66.49 | $70.10 | $74.20 | $78.90 | $84.33 |
| 10.8% | $58.37 | $61.14 | $64.23 | $67.71 | $71.67 |
