TGM's two-stage DCF values Cintas Corporation (CTAS) between $66.15 and $122.71 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $88.92. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.7%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$198.95 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +29.1% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.7% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 6.4%/yr | 9.7% | $66.15 |
| Base case | 9.4%/yr | 8.7% | $88.92 |
| Optimistic | 12.4%/yr | 7.7% | $122.71 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 13, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $137.51 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$198.95
Market-Implied Growth
+29.1%/yr
vs +9.1% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$66.15 – $122.71
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for CTAS (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.7B · 0.40B shares · net debt $2.1B
Estimated Fair Value
$88.92
-55.3% vs $198.95
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 9.4%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $198.95; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.7% | $112 | $122 | $136 | $152 | $174 |
| 7.7% | $92.16 | $99.26 | $108 | $118 | $131 |
| 8.7% | $78.05 | $83.08 | $88.92 | $95.77 | $104 |
| 9.7% | $67.41 | $71.13 | $75.35 | $80.20 | $85.83 |
| 10.7% | $59.10 | $61.94 | $65.12 | $68.70 | $72.78 |
