TGM's two-stage DCF values Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) between $36.03 and $62.21 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $45.23. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth (floored at 2%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (9.1%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$114.17 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +23.6% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.1% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 10.1% | $36.03 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 9.1% | $45.23 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 8.1% | $62.21 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 26, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $48.21 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$114.17
Market-Implied Growth
+23.6%/yr
vs -2.5% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$36.03 – $62.21
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for CSCO (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $13.0B · 3.94B shares · net debt $19.7B
Estimated Fair Value
$45.23
-60.4% vs $114.17
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $114.17; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.1% | $56.16 | $61.05 | $67.00 | $74.39 | $83.83 |
| 8.1% | $46.86 | $50.22 | $54.17 | $58.89 | $64.63 |
| 9.1% | $40.02 | $42.44 | $45.23 | $48.46 | $52.28 |
| 10.1% | $34.77 | $36.58 | $38.64 | $40.98 | $43.66 |
| 11.1% | $30.61 | $32.01 | $33.58 | $35.33 | $37.32 |
