TGM's two-stage DCF values Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) between $35.41 and $62.46 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $45.24. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (9.1%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$109.21 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +22.6% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.1% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 10.1% | $35.41 |
| Base case | 2.3%/yr | 9.1% | $45.24 |
| Optimistic | 5.3%/yr | 8.1% | $62.46 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 9, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $58.83 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$109.21
Market-Implied Growth
+22.6%/yr
vs -0.6% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$35.41 – $62.46
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for CSCO (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $13.0B · 3.94B shares · net debt $22.3B
Estimated Fair Value
$45.24
-58.6% vs $109.21
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.3%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $109.21; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.1% | $56.34 | $61.31 | $67.35 | $74.86 | $84.44 |
| 8.1% | $46.91 | $50.31 | $54.32 | $59.11 | $64.94 |
| 9.1% | $39.96 | $42.42 | $45.24 | $48.53 | $52.40 |
| 10.1% | $34.62 | $36.47 | $38.55 | $40.93 | $43.66 |
| 11.1% | $30.40 | $31.83 | $33.42 | $35.20 | $37.21 |
