Carpenter Technology Corporation (CRS) DCF Valuation
Why we don't show a single “fair value” for CRS
A trailing-FCF DCF can't fairly anchor Carpenter Technology Corporation right now — free cash flow has been negative in recent years. For a company in this position, trailing free cash flow understates what the business actually earns for owners, so any “fair value” built on it would be misleadingly low. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 11.9%/yr | 11.4% | $10.89 |
| Base case | 14.9%/yr | 10.4% | $16.00 |
| Optimistic | 17.9%/yr | 9.4% | $23.11 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $281.39 | |
Current Price
$575.47
Market-Implied Growth
—
Base-Case Model Value
$16.00
model output — not a price target
CRS DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for CRS (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $55.4M · 0.05B shares · net debt $379.9M
Estimated Fair Value
$27.88
-95.2% vs $575.47
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 14.9%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $575.47; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.4% | $37.25 | $39.70 | $42.56 | $45.95 | $50.04 |
| 9.4% | $30.46 | $32.17 | $34.12 | $36.37 | $39.00 |
| 10.4% | $25.27 | $26.49 | $27.88 | $29.44 | $31.24 |
| 11.4% | $21.17 | $22.08 | $23.09 | $24.22 | $25.50 |
| 12.4% | $17.88 | $18.57 | $19.32 | $20.16 | $21.09 |
About Carpenter Technology Corporation
Carpenter Technology Corporation is a global leader in the production and supply of high-performance metallic materials, serving markets across the United States, Europe, Asia Pacific, Mexico, and Canada. The company's operations are structured into two primary divisions: Specialty Alloys Operations and Performance Engineered Products. Its diverse product portfolio encompasses advanced alloys like titanium, stainless, alloy, and tool steels, alongside various powder metals, additives, and custom-fabricated metal components. These specialized materials are critical to numerous industries, including aerospace, defense, medical devices, transportation, energy generation, general manufacturing, and consumer goods. Established in 1889, Carpenter Technology maintains its corporate headquarters in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Manufacturing - Metal Fabrication
- CEO
- Tony R. Thene