Why we don't show a single “fair value” for CRS
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($138.58) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 14.8%/yr | 11.2% | $83.07 |
| Base case | 17.8%/yr | 10.2% | $108.11 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 9.2% | $138.58 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 1, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $302.10 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$519.66
Market-Implied Growth
N/A
Base-Case Model Value
$108.11
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for CRS (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $232.2M · 0.05B shares · net debt $297.4M
Estimated Fair Value
$108.11
-79.2% vs $519.66
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 17.8%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $519.66; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.2% | $131 | $141 | $152 | $165 | $181 |
| 9.2% | $112 | $119 | $127 | $136 | $146 |
| 10.2% | $97.22 | $102 | $108 | $115 | $122 |
| 11.2% | $85.51 | $89.46 | $93.86 | $98.79 | $104 |
| 12.2% | $76.03 | $79.16 | $82.60 | $86.41 | $90.65 |
