Why we don't show a single “fair value” for CRS
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($134.02) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$415.32 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +55.0% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.4% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 14.8%/yr | 11.4% | $80.91 |
| Base case | 17.8%/yr | 10.4% | $104.96 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 9.4% | $134.02 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 13, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $285.72 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$415.32
Market-Implied Growth
+55.0%/yr
vs +19.4% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$104.96
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for CRS (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $232.2M · 0.05B shares · net debt $297.4M
Estimated Fair Value
$104.96
-74.7% vs $415.32
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 17.8%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $415.32; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.4% | $127 | $136 | $146 | $158 | $173 |
| 9.4% | $109 | $115 | $123 | $131 | $141 |
| 10.4% | $94.66 | $99.51 | $105 | $111 | $118 |
| 11.4% | $83.45 | $87.22 | $91.40 | $96.07 | $101 |
| 12.4% | $74.35 | $77.34 | $80.62 | $84.25 | $88.29 |
