TGM's two-stage DCF values CRH plc (CRH) between $30.13 and $63.95 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $44.19. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (10.1%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$85.04 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +19.7% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.1% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 4.2%/yr | 11.1% | $30.13 |
| Base case | 7.2%/yr | 10.1% | $44.19 |
| Optimistic | 10.2%/yr | 9.1% | $63.95 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 13, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $124.17 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$85.04
Market-Implied Growth
+19.7%/yr
vs +3.7% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$30.13 – $63.95
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for CRH (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $2.6B · 0.67B shares · net debt $13.6B
Estimated Fair Value
$44.19
-48.0% vs $85.04
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 7.2%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $85.04; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.1% | $56.76 | $61.90 | $67.94 | $75.16 | $83.94 |
| 9.1% | $46.30 | $50.00 | $54.26 | $59.21 | $65.03 |
| 10.1% | $38.28 | $41.06 | $44.19 | $47.76 | $51.87 |
| 11.1% | $31.95 | $34.09 | $36.48 | $39.16 | $42.18 |
| 12.1% | $26.82 | $28.51 | $30.38 | $32.45 | $34.75 |