TGM's two-stage DCF values CRH plc (CRH) between $24.06 and $53.90 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $36.45. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (10%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$101.29 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +23.1% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.7%/yr | 11.0% | $24.06 |
| Base case | 3.7%/yr | 10.0% | $36.45 |
| Optimistic | 6.7%/yr | 9.0% | $53.90 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 11, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $129.54 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$101.29
Market-Implied Growth
+23.1%/yr
vs +3.7% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$24.06 – $53.90
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for CRH (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $2.6B · 0.67B shares · net debt $13.6B
Estimated Fair Value
$36.45
-64.0% vs $101.29
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 3.7%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $101.29; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0% | $47.41 | $51.92 | $57.25 | $63.63 | $71.42 |
| 9.0% | $38.27 | $41.51 | $45.24 | $49.60 | $54.73 |
| 10.0% | $31.28 | $33.71 | $36.45 | $39.57 | $43.18 |
| 11.0% | $25.77 | $27.64 | $29.72 | $32.06 | $34.71 |
| 12.0% | $21.31 | $22.79 | $24.41 | $26.22 | $28.23 |
