CRH plc (CRH) DCF Valuation
Why we don't show a single “fair value” for CRH
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($50.09) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$112.32 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +25.4% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 11.0% | $23.70 |
| Base case | 2.4%/yr | 10.0% | $33.56 |
| Optimistic | 5.4%/yr | 9.0% | $50.09 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $130.17 | |
Current Price
$112.32
Market-Implied Growth
+25.4%/yr
vs +2.4% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$33.56
model output — not a price target
CRH DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for CRH (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $2.6B · 0.67B shares · net debt $13.6B
Estimated Fair Value
$33.35
-70.3% vs $112.32
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.4%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $112.32; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0% | $45.80 | $49.01 | $52.81 | $57.37 | $62.94 |
| 9.0% | $36.85 | $39.05 | $41.58 | $44.54 | $48.03 |
| 10.0% | $30.01 | $31.57 | $33.35 | $35.37 | $37.70 |
| 11.0% | $24.62 | $25.77 | $27.05 | $28.49 | $30.12 |
| 12.0% | $20.26 | $21.12 | $22.07 | $23.13 | $24.31 |
About CRH plc
CRH plc, together with its subsidiaries, provides building materials solutions in Ireland, the United States, the United Kingdom, rest of Europe, and internationally. It operates through three segments: Americas Materials Solutions, Americas Building Solutions, and International Solutions. The company offers building materials for the construction and maintenance of public infrastructure, and commercial and residential buildings, as well as construction and renovation of transportation infrastructure, critical utility networks, commercial and residential buildings, and outdoor living spaces; paving and construction services; and produces and sells aggregates, cementitious materials, ready mixed concrete and mortars, and asphalt. It also manufactures, supplies, and delivers building products for the built environment in communities in North America; and provides building and infrastructure solutions for complex critical utility infrastructure, such as water, energy, transportation, and telecommunications projects, and outdoor living solutions for private and public spaces. In addition, the company produces and supplies precast and pre-stressed concrete products comprising vaults, pipes, and manholes; and concrete and polymer-based products, such as underground vaults, drainage systems, enclosures, and modular precast structures for applications in transportation, water, energy, and telecommunications markets. Further, it provides crushed stone, sand, and gravel; granite, limestone, and sandstone; fly ash, pozzolans, synthetic gypsum, calcined clay, and ground granulated blast-furnace slags; fencing and railing systems, lawn and garden products, and packaged concrete mixes; and concrete masonry, hardscape and related products, including pavers, blocks and curbs, retaining walls, and slabs. CRH plc was founded in 1936 and is based in Dublin, Ireland.
- Sector
- Basic Materials
- Industry
- Construction Materials
- CEO
- Jim Mintern