California Resources Corporation (CRC) DCF Valuation
TGM's two-stage DCF values California Resources Corporation (CRC) between $87.21 and $168.28 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $119.74. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.6%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$58.61 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +0.9% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.6% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 12.9%/yr | 9.6% | $87.21 |
| Base case | 15.9%/yr | 8.6% | $119.74 |
| Optimistic | 18.9%/yr | 7.6% | $168.28 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $143.19 | |
Current Price
$58.61
Market-Implied Growth
+0.9%/yr
vs +15.9% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$87.21 – $168.28
model output — not a price target
CRC DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for CRC (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $405.0M · 0.09B shares · net debt $1.2B
Estimated Fair Value
$200.14
+241.5% vs $58.61
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 15.9%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $58.61; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.6% | $271 | $295 | $324 | $362 | $413 |
| 7.6% | $217 | $232 | $250 | $272 | $299 |
| 8.6% | $178 | $188 | $200 | $214 | $231 |
| 9.6% | $150 | $157 | $165 | $174 | $185 |
| 10.6% | $128 | $133 | $139 | $145 | $153 |
About California Resources Corporation
California Resources Corporation functions as an independent enterprise primarily engaged in oil and natural gas ventures. Its operations encompass the full spectrum from exploration and extraction of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids, through their collection and processing, to their ultimate marketing. These energy products are supplied to various clients, including energy marketers, refineries located in California, and other purchasers who possess the necessary transport and storage infrastructure. As of December 31, 2021, the company held rights to approximately 1.9 million net mineral acres, with its proven reserves estimated at 480 million barrels of oil equivalent (BOE). Additionally, the firm also produces and supplies electricity to both the local utility and the broader power grid. Established in 2014, the corporation is headquartered in Santa Clarita, California.
- Sector
- Energy
- Industry
- Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
- CEO
- Francisco J. Leon