TGM's two-stage DCF values California Resources Corp (CRC) between $85.69 and $164.48 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $117.41. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.7%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$51.07 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -1.3% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.7% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 12.9%/yr | 9.7% | $85.69 |
| Base case | 15.9%/yr | 8.7% | $117.41 |
| Optimistic | 18.9%/yr | 7.7% | $164.48 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 30, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $140.44 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$51.07
Market-Implied Growth
-1.3%/yr
vs +15.9% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$85.69 – $164.48
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for CRC (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $405.0M · 0.09B shares · net debt $1.2B
Estimated Fair Value
$117.41
+129.9% vs $51.07
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 15.9%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $51.07; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.7% | $150 | $165 | $184 | $208 | $239 |
| 7.7% | $122 | $132 | $144 | $159 | $177 |
| 8.7% | $102 | $109 | $117 | $127 | $139 |
| 9.7% | $86.79 | $92.07 | $98.08 | $105 | $113 |
| 10.7% | $74.98 | $79.01 | $83.53 | $88.62 | $94.41 |
