TGM's two-stage DCF values California Resources Corp (CRC) between $84.03 and $162.47 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $115.51. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.6%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$56.75 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +0.3% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.6% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 12.1%/yr | 9.6% | $84.03 |
| Base case | 15.1%/yr | 8.6% | $115.51 |
| Optimistic | 18.1%/yr | 7.6% | $162.47 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 11, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $136.97 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$56.75
Market-Implied Growth
+0.3%/yr
vs +15.1% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$84.03 – $162.47
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for CRC (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $405.0M · 0.09B shares · net debt $1.2B
Estimated Fair Value
$115.51
+103.5% vs $56.75
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 15.1%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $56.75; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.6% | $148 | $163 | $182 | $207 | $239 |
| 7.6% | $120 | $130 | $142 | $157 | $175 |
| 8.6% | $100 | $107 | $116 | $125 | $137 |
| 9.6% | $85.04 | $90.29 | $96.28 | $103 | $111 |
| 10.6% | $73.37 | $77.36 | $81.84 | $86.90 | $92.67 |
