Costco Wholesale (COST) DCF: History & Chart

Costco Wholesale Corporation(COST)

Discount Stores · Issaquah, WA

$903.53-6.65 (-0.73%)

Delayed quote: Sep 9, 2026, 10:30 AM EDT

About Costco Wholesale Corporation

Costco Wholesale Corporation, alongside its group entities, operates membership-based retail warehouses across a broad international scope, spanning the United States, Puerto Rico, Canada, the United Kingdom, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Australia, Spain, France, Iceland, China, and Taiwan. These outlets provide customers with an extensive array of both well-known branded and proprietary private-label products. Their vast inventory includes household staples, shelf-stable groceries, confectionery, chilled and frozen items, alcoholic beverages, tobacco, and deli selections. Furthermore, the stores stock major appliances, consumer electronics, health and beauty aids, hardware, garden and patio furniture, sporting goods, vehicle tires, toys, seasonal merchandise, office supplies, automotive maintenance products, postage services, event tickets, apparel, small kitchen appliances, home furnishings, domestic textiles, kitchenware, custom-order kiosks, and fine jewelry. Fresh departments offer meat, produce, a service deli, and bakery items. Beyond retail goods, Costco provides in-store amenities such as pharmacies, optical clinics, food courts, hearing aid centers, and tire installation facilities, in addition to managing 636 gas stations. The company also extends its offerings online through business delivery, travel booking, and same-day grocery fulfillment in various countries. As of August 29, 2021, Costco maintained a global network of 815 membership warehouses, with 564 located in the United States and Puerto Rico, 105 in Canada, 39 in Mexico, 30 in Japan, 29 in the United Kingdom, 16 in South Korea, 14 in Taiwan, 12 in Australia, 3 in Spain, and one each in Iceland, France, and China. Digital storefronts facilitate e-commerce operations in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Mexico, South Korea, Taiwan, Japan, and Australia. Founded in 1976, the enterprise was originally known as Costco Companies, Inc. before officially adopting the name Costco Wholesale Corporation in August 1999. Its corporate headquarters are situated in Issaquah, Washington.

Issaquah, WA

341,000 employees

www.costco.com

Consumer Defensive / Discount Stores

Sector: Consumer Defensive
Industry: Discount Stores
CEO: Ron Vachris

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Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) DCF Valuation

Price is ABOVE the estimated range

$258.51

$456.00

Model scenario range

$903.79

Today's price

TGM's two-stage DCF values Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) between $258.51 and $456.00 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $337.26. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.4%) reflects its beta.

What would today's price require?

Growth the price assumes+33.1%/yr

Actual FCF growth, last 5 years+5.0%/yr

$903.79 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +33.1% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.4% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.

Scenario	FCF growth (fading to 2.5%)	Discount	Value / share
Conservative	4.2%/yr	9.4%	$258.51
Base case	7.2%/yr	8.4%	$337.26
Optimistic	10.2%/yr	7.4%	$456.00
Third-party model estimate (FMP)	independent reference · retrieved Sep 9, 2026 · assumptions not provided		$304.13

The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.

Price|PE Ratio|FCF Yield|All Metrics

Current Price

$903.79

Market-Implied Growth

+33.1%/yr

vs +5.0% 5Y actual

Model Scenario Range

$258.51 – $456.00

model output — not a price target

COST DCF Fair Value Calculator

Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for COST (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.

FCF Growth Rate7.2%/yr

Historical FCF CAGR: 3Y 14.7% · 5Y 5.0% · 10Y 16.7%

Discount Rate (WACC)8.4%

Terminal Growth2.5%

Projection Years10yr

Base inputs: FCF $6.7B · 0.44B shares · net cash $8.1B

Estimated Fair Value

$337.26

-62.7% vs $903.79

Current price$903.79

Third-party model estimate (FMP)$304.13

Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth

How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 7.2%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $903.79; red = below. Your current case is outlined.

WACC ↓ / Terminal →	1.50%	2.00%	2.50%	3.00%	3.50%
6.4%	$418	$456	$505	$568	$653
7.4%	$348	$374	$404	$441	$488
8.4%	$299	$317	$337	$362	$391
9.4%	$262	$275	$290	$307	$327
10.4%	$234	$244	$255	$267	$281