Why we don't show a single “fair value” for COST
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($447.76) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$935.03 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +34.5% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 4.2%/yr | 9.5% | $255.86 |
| Base case | 7.2%/yr | 8.5% | $332.63 |
| Optimistic | 10.2%/yr | 7.5% | $447.76 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 25, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $310.56 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$935.03
Market-Implied Growth
+34.5%/yr
vs +5.0% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$332.63
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for COST (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $6.7B · 0.44B shares · net cash $8.4B
Estimated Fair Value
$332.63
-64.4% vs $935.03
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 7.2%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $935.03; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.5% | $410 | $447 | $494 | $553 | $632 |
| 7.5% | $343 | $368 | $397 | $433 | $477 |
| 8.5% | $296 | $313 | $333 | $356 | $384 |
| 9.5% | $260 | $272 | $287 | $303 | $322 |
| 10.5% | $232 | $242 | $252 | $264 | $278 |
