Why we don't show a single “fair value” for COHR
A trailing-FCF DCF can't fairly anchor Coherent, Inc. right now — free cash flow is currently depressed by a heavy investment cycle while revenue keeps growing. For a company in this position, trailing free cash flow understates what the business actually earns for owners, so any “fair value” built on it would be misleadingly low. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 12.5% | $5.96 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 11.5% | $10.18 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 10.5% | $14.90 |
Current Price
$295.83
Market-Implied Growth
N/A
Base-Case Model Value
$10.18
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for COHR (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $195.4M · 0.20B shares · net debt $2.1B
Estimated Fair Value
$10.18
-96.6% vs $295.83
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $295.83; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $13.84 | $15.18 | $16.72 | $18.48 | $20.54 |
| 10.5% | $10.87 | $11.89 | $13.03 | $14.33 | $15.80 |
| 11.5% | $8.51 | $9.30 | $10.18 | $11.16 | $12.26 |
| 12.5% | $6.59 | $7.22 | $7.91 | $8.67 | $9.52 |
| 13.5% | $4.99 | $5.50 | $6.06 | $6.67 | $7.33 |
