Coherent, Inc. (COHR) DCF Valuation
Why we don't show a single “fair value” for COHR
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($13.57) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 13.8%/yr | 12.5% | $1.89 |
| Base case | 16.8%/yr | 11.5% | $6.86 |
| Optimistic | 19.8%/yr | 10.5% | $13.57 |
Current Price
$380.56
Market-Implied Growth
—
Base-Case Model Value
$6.86
model output — not a price target
COHR DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for COHR (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $195.4M · 0.16B shares · net debt $2.8B
Estimated Fair Value
$20.85
-94.5% vs $380.56
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 16.8%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $380.56; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $30.16 | $32.30 | $34.75 | $37.58 | $40.88 |
| 10.5% | $23.60 | $25.15 | $26.89 | $28.87 | $31.12 |
| 11.5% | $18.43 | $19.58 | $20.85 | $22.28 | $23.89 |
| 12.5% | $14.26 | $15.13 | $16.09 | $17.15 | $18.33 |
| 13.5% | $10.83 | $11.51 | $12.25 | $13.05 | $13.94 |
About Coherent, Inc.
Coherent, Inc. specializes in advanced laser technologies, offering a comprehensive suite of products that includes lasers, laser-based solutions, and complete systems. These are deployed across a spectrum of uses, from commercial and industrial operations to critical scientific research. The company's operations are distinctly segmented into two primary areas: laser sources for Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) and industrial lasers alongside integrated systems. Coherent handles the entire lifecycle of its offerings, from conceptual design and manufacturing to global marketing and ongoing service. Their product portfolio spans lasers, specialized laser tools, high-precision optical components, associated accessories, and sophisticated laser measurement and control devices. These sophisticated tools are integral to fields such as microelectronics fabrication, advanced materials processing, integration into original equipment manufacturer (OEM) components and instrumentation, scientific studies, and various governmental programs. Distribution in the U.S. is primarily managed by an in-house sales team, while international markets are reached through a combination of direct sales personnel and independent representatives. Established in 1966, Coherent, Inc. maintains its headquarters in Santa Clara, California. Notably, since July 1, 2022, the company has operated as a wholly-owned subsidiary of II-VI Incorporated.
- Sector
- Technology
- Industry
- Hardware, Equipment & Parts
- CEO
- James Robert Anderson