Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ) DCF: History & Chart

Canadian Natural Resources Limited(CNQ)

Oil & Gas Exploration & Production · Calgary, AB

$50.07-0.73 (-1.44%)

Delayed quote: Sep 11, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT

About Canadian Natural Resources Limited

Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNQ) is an integrated energy enterprise engaged across the full spectrum of upstream and downstream activities related to crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs), encompassing acquisition, exploration, development, production, marketing, and sales. Its diverse portfolio of hydrocarbon products encompasses synthetic crude oil (SCO), light and medium crude, bitumen (also known as thermal oil), along with both primary heavy crude oil and specialized Pelican Lake heavy crude. Beyond exploration and production, the company holds midstream and refining assets, notably comprising two crude oil pipeline networks and a half-interest (50% working interest) in an 84-megawatt cogeneration facility situated at Primrose. As of December 31, 2020, CNQ reported substantial reserves. Its proved crude oil, bitumen, and NGLs reserves amounted to 10,528 million barrels (MMbbl), escalating to 13,271 MMbbl when probable reserves are included. Proved synthetic crude oil (SCO) reserves stood at 6,998 MMbbl, with total proved plus probable SCO reserves reaching 7,535 MMbbl. Furthermore, the company's proved natural gas reserves were recorded at 12,168 billion cubic feet (Bcf), expanding to 20,249 Bcf on a proved plus probable basis. Geographically, its operations are concentrated in key regions, including Western Canada, the United Kingdom's North Sea sector, and offshore West Africa. The entity, incorporated in 1973, was originally known as AEX Minerals Corporation before adopting the name Canadian Natural Resources Limited in December 1975. Its corporate headquarters are located in Calgary, Canada.

Calgary, AB

10,750 employees

www.cnrl.com

Energy / Oil & Gas Exploration & Production

Sector: Energy
Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
CEO: Norman Murray Edwards

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Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNQ) DCF Valuation

Price is INSIDE the estimated range

$47.49

$90.85

Model scenario range

$50.07

Today's price

TGM's two-stage DCF values Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNQ) between $47.49 and $90.85 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $64.83. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.5%) reflects its beta.

What would today's price require?

Growth the price assumes+6.0%/yr

Actual FCF growth, last 5 years+9.6%/yr

$50.07 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +6.0% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.

Scenario	FCF growth (fading to 2.5%)	Discount	Value / share
Conservative	8.7%/yr	9.5%	$47.49
Base case	11.7%/yr	8.5%	$64.83
Optimistic	14.7%/yr	7.5%	$90.85
Third-party model estimate (FMP)	independent reference · retrieved Sep 11, 2026 · assumptions not provided		$90.21

The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.

Price|PE Ratio|FCF Yield|All Metrics

Current Price

$50.07

Market-Implied Growth

+6.0%/yr

vs +9.6% 5Y actual

Model Scenario Range

$47.49 – $90.85

model output — not a price target

CNQ DCF Fair Value Calculator

Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for CNQ (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.

FCF Growth Rate11.7%/yr

Historical FCF CAGR: 3Y 11.9% · 5Y 9.6% · 10Y 34.6%

Discount Rate (WACC)8.5%

Terminal Growth2.5%

Projection Years10yr

Base inputs: FCF $5.9B · 2.09B shares · net debt $11.9B

Estimated Fair Value

$64.83

+29.5% vs $50.07

Current price$50.07

Third-party model estimate (FMP)$90.21

Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth

How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 11.7%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $50.07; red = below. Your current case is outlined.

WACC ↓ / Terminal →	1.50%	2.00%	2.50%	3.00%	3.50%
6.5%	$82.68	$91.20	$102	$116	$134
7.5%	$67.30	$72.90	$79.62	$87.82	$98.06
8.5%	$56.34	$60.26	$64.83	$70.23	$76.70
9.5%	$48.14	$51.02	$54.30	$58.08	$62.48
10.5%	$41.78	$43.96	$46.41	$49.18	$52.35