TGM's two-stage DCF values Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNQ) between $53.11 and $101.19 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $72.35. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$44.79 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +3.6% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 11.2%/yr | 9.5% | $53.11 |
| Base case | 14.2%/yr | 8.5% | $72.35 |
| Optimistic | 17.2%/yr | 7.5% | $101.19 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 27, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $91.50 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$44.79
Market-Implied Growth
+3.6%/yr
vs +13.9% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$53.11 – $101.19
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for CNQ (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $5.9B · 2.09B shares · net debt $11.9B
Estimated Fair Value
$72.35
+61.5% vs $44.79
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 14.2%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $44.79; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.5% | $92.33 | $102 | $114 | $129 | $149 |
| 7.5% | $75.11 | $81.38 | $88.89 | $98.06 | $110 |
| 8.5% | $62.85 | $67.23 | $72.35 | $78.38 | $85.61 |
| 9.5% | $53.68 | $56.90 | $60.56 | $64.79 | $69.71 |
| 10.5% | $46.58 | $49.02 | $51.75 | $54.85 | $58.38 |
