TGM's two-stage DCF values Chewy, Inc. (CHWY) between $14.11 and $21.56 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $17.26. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (11.1%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$20.75 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +15.1% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.1% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 6.8%/yr | 12.1% | $14.11 |
| Base case | 9.8%/yr | 11.1% | $17.26 |
| Optimistic | 12.8%/yr | 10.1% | $21.56 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 10, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $19.00 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$20.75
Market-Implied Growth
+15.1%/yr
vs +9.8% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$14.11 – $21.56
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for CHWY (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $397.7M · 0.41B shares · net cash $822.0M
Estimated Fair Value
$17.26
-16.8% vs $20.75
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 9.8%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $20.75; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.1% | $19.94 | $20.96 | $22.12 | $23.47 | $25.07 |
| 10.1% | $17.75 | $18.51 | $19.37 | $20.34 | $21.47 |
| 11.1% | $16.02 | $16.60 | $17.26 | $17.99 | $18.82 |
| 12.1% | $14.62 | $15.08 | $15.59 | $16.15 | $16.78 |
| 13.1% | $13.46 | $13.83 | $14.24 | $14.69 | $15.18 |
