TGM's two-stage DCF values Chewy, Inc. (CHWY) between $14.53 and $22.26 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $17.80. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (11.1%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$23.09 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +18.2% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.1% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 7.7%/yr | 12.1% | $14.53 |
| Base case | 10.7%/yr | 11.1% | $17.80 |
| Optimistic | 13.7%/yr | 10.1% | $22.26 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 8, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $18.98 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$23.09
Market-Implied Growth
+18.2%/yr
vs +10.7% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$14.53 – $22.26
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for CHWY (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $397.7M · 0.41B shares · net cash $822.0M
Estimated Fair Value
$17.80
-22.9% vs $23.09
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 10.7%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $23.09; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.1% | $20.60 | $21.65 | $22.87 | $24.28 | $25.94 |
| 10.1% | $18.31 | $19.11 | $20.00 | $21.02 | $22.19 |
| 11.1% | $16.51 | $17.12 | $17.80 | $18.56 | $19.42 |
| 12.1% | $15.05 | $15.54 | $16.07 | $16.65 | $17.31 |
| 13.1% | $13.85 | $14.24 | $14.66 | $15.13 | $15.64 |
