Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. (CALM) DCF Valuation
Why we don't show a single “fair value” for CALM
Even the conservative scenario ($321.55) sits far above today's price — trailing cash flows may be cyclically elevated. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 8.5% | $321.55 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 7.5% | $436.57 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 6.5% | $596.09 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $147.11 | |
Current Price
$79.57
Market-Implied Growth
—
Base-Case Model Value
$436.57
model output — not a price target
CALM DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for CALM (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $515.4M · 0.05B shares · net cash $500.4M
Estimated Fair Value
$765.04
+861.5% vs $79.57
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $79.57; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $1068 | $1194 | $1361 | $1596 | $1947 |
| 6.5% | $826 | $898 | $987 | $1103 | $1257 |
| 7.5% | $666 | $711 | $765 | $831 | $914 |
| 8.5% | $553 | $583 | $618 | $660 | $709 |
| 9.5% | $470 | $491 | $515 | $543 | $575 |
About Cal-Maine Foods, Inc.
Cal-Maine Foods, Inc., along with its various subsidiary companies, handles the full scope of shell egg operations, from production and sorting to packaging, promotion, and delivery. The firm also offers a selection of specialized shell eggs, such as nutritionally enhanced, free-range, organic, and brown varieties. These premium products are marketed under prominent brand names like Egg-Land's Best, Land O' Lakes, Farmhouse Eggs, and 4-Grain, in addition to being supplied for private labels. Its diverse clientele includes major national and regional supermarket chains, warehouse clubs, independent grocers, foodservice providers, and individual consumers of egg products. The company primarily focuses its sales efforts across the southwestern, southeastern, mid-western, and mid-Atlantic areas of the United States. Founded in 1957, Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. is based in Ridgeland, Mississippi.
- Sector
- Consumer Defensive
- Industry
- Agricultural Farm Products
- CEO
- Sherman L. Miller