Why we don't show a single “fair value” for CALM
Even the conservative scenario ($278.74) sits far above today's price — trailing cash flows may be cyclically elevated. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 11.2%/yr | 8.5% | $278.74 |
| Base case | 14.2%/yr | 7.5% | $380.67 |
| Optimistic | 17.2%/yr | 6.5% | $543.57 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 13, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $138.03 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$75.11
Market-Implied Growth
N/A
Base-Case Model Value
$380.67
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for CALM (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $529.1M · 0.05B shares · net cash $107.2M
Estimated Fair Value
$380.67
+406.9% vs $75.11
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 14.2%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $75.11; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $498 | $562 | $646 | $765 | $943 |
| 6.5% | $394 | $433 | $480 | $541 | $623 |
| 7.5% | $326 | $351 | $381 | $417 | $463 |
| 8.5% | $276 | $294 | $314 | $339 | $368 |
| 9.5% | $240 | $253 | $267 | $284 | $304 |
