Why we don't show a single “fair value” for CALM
Even the conservative scenario ($276.17) sits far above today's price — trailing cash flows may be cyclically elevated. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$87.08 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -19.5% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 11.2%/yr | 8.5% | $276.17 |
| Base case | 14.2%/yr | 7.5% | $377.11 |
| Optimistic | 17.2%/yr | 6.5% | $538.43 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 30, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $146.59 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$87.08
Market-Implied Growth
-19.5%/yr
vs +14.2% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$377.11
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for CALM (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $529.1M · 0.05B shares · net cash $113.5M
Estimated Fair Value
$377.11
+333.1% vs $87.08
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 14.2%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $87.08; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $493 | $556 | $640 | $758 | $934 |
| 6.5% | $391 | $428 | $476 | $536 | $617 |
| 7.5% | $323 | $347 | $377 | $413 | $459 |
| 8.5% | $274 | $291 | $312 | $335 | $364 |
| 9.5% | $238 | $250 | $265 | $282 | $301 |
