TGM's two-stage DCF values Conagra Brands, Inc. (CAG) between $22.67 and $53.44 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $33.08. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth (floored at 2%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$15.19 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -8.6% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 8.5% | $22.67 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 7.5% | $33.08 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 6.5% | $53.44 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 9, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $9.20 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$15.19
Market-Implied Growth
-8.6%/yr
vs +0.3% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$22.67 – $53.44
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for CAG (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.1B · 0.48B shares · net debt $7.1B
Estimated Fair Value
$33.08
+117.8% vs $15.19
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $15.19; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $47.11 | $54.73 | $64.88 | $79.08 | $100 |
| 6.5% | $34.72 | $39.29 | $45.01 | $52.35 | $62.13 |
| 7.5% | $26.46 | $29.47 | $33.08 | $37.50 | $43.00 |
| 8.5% | $20.56 | $22.67 | $25.13 | $28.04 | $31.53 |
| 9.5% | $16.13 | $17.68 | $19.45 | $21.49 | $23.87 |
