Conagra Brands, Inc. (CAG) DCF Valuation
Transparent DCF models put Conagra Brands, Inc. (CAG)'s fair value in a range of $19.92 – $37.58 — the low end is TGM's conservative base case (5% FCF growth, 10% discount), the high end the analyst consensus (FMP). Today's price of $13.32 sits below that range — by these conservative assumptions it screens as potentially undervalued.
Reverse DCF: at today's $13.32, the market is pricing in roughly +2.3%/yr free-cash-flow growth over the next decade (at a 10% required return) — versus its actual 5-year FCF CAGR of -10.3%. The price is betting on acceleration above its track record.
Current Price
$13.32
Fair-Value Range
$19.92 – $37.58
Market-Implied Growth
+2.3%/yr
vs -10.3% 5Y actual
CAG DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Illustrative model — not investment advice. Defaults to a conservative base case; the analyst (FMP) DCF, where available, is shown as a reference below.
Base inputs: FCF $1.1B · 0.48B shares · net debt $8.0B
Estimated Fair Value
$19.92
+49.6% vs $13.31
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 5.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $13.31; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0% | $28.82 | $31.15 | $33.91 | $37.22 | $41.27 |
| 9.0% | $22.39 | $23.99 | $25.83 | $27.98 | $30.52 |
| 10.0% | $17.50 | $18.63 | $19.92 | $21.39 | $23.09 |
| 11.0% | $13.65 | $14.48 | $15.41 | $16.46 | $17.65 |
| 12.0% | $10.55 | $11.18 | $11.87 | $12.63 | $13.49 |
About Conagra Brands, Inc.
Conagra Brands, Inc., a prominent manufacturer of packaged food products, conducts its business across North America through its various subsidiary companies. The firm organizes its extensive operations into four distinct segments: Grocery & Snacks, Refrigerated & Frozen, International, and Foodservice. The Grocery & Snacks division primarily distributes non-perishable food items through various retail channels within the United States. In contrast, the Refrigerated & Frozen segment focuses on supplying temperature-sensitive food products to comparable U.S. retail outlets. Its International division caters to markets outside the United States, offering food products in all temperature states to both retail consumers and professional food service operators globally. Domestically, the Foodservice segment specializes in providing both proprietary and custom-engineered culinary offerings, such as prepared meals, entrees, sauces, and other specially manufactured gastronomic items, tailored for restaurants and institutional food providers throughout the United States. Conagra maintains an extensive portfolio of well-recognized brands, including Birds Eye, Duncan Hines, Healthy Choice, Marie Callender's, Reddi-wip, Slim Jim, Angie's BOOMCHICKAPOP, Duke's, Earth Balance, Gardein, and Frontera. The company, which traces its origins back to 1861, was formerly known as ConAgra Foods, Inc. until its rebranding to Conagra Brands, Inc. in November 2016. Its main corporate offices are located in Chicago, Illinois.
- Sector
- Consumer Defensive
- Industry
- Packaged Foods
- CEO
- Sean Connolly