BWX Technologies, Inc. (BWXT) DCF Valuation
Why we don't show a single “fair value” for BWXT
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($78.18) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$210.00 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +41.1% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.8% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 6.9%/yr | 8.8% | $33.14 |
| Base case | 9.9%/yr | 7.8% | $50.71 |
| Optimistic | 12.9%/yr | 6.8% | $78.18 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $51.18 | |
Current Price
$210.00
Market-Implied Growth
+41.1%/yr
vs +9.9% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$50.71
model output — not a price target
BWXT DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for BWXT (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $233.6M · 0.09B shares · net debt $1.5B
Estimated Fair Value
$71.59
-65.9% vs $210.00
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 9.9%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $210.00; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.8% | $103 | $115 | $131 | $152 | $183 |
| 6.8% | $78.34 | $85.46 | $94.25 | $105 | $120 |
| 7.8% | $61.61 | $66.17 | $71.59 | $78.14 | $86.22 |
| 8.8% | $49.55 | $52.64 | $56.22 | $60.42 | $65.41 |
| 9.8% | $40.48 | $42.66 | $45.14 | $47.99 | $51.29 |
About BWX Technologies, Inc.
BWX Technologies, Inc. operates globally, specializing in the production and sale of nuclear components across the United States, Canada, and other international regions. The company's multifaceted operations are categorized into three distinct segments: Nuclear Operations Group, Nuclear Power Group, and Nuclear Services Group. The Nuclear Operations Group is a pivotal supplier of precision naval and critical nuclear components, including reactors, nuclear fuel, and assemblies, primarily supporting the United States Department of Energy/National Nuclear Security Administration's Naval Nuclear Propulsion Program. This segment also fabricates missile launch tubes for U.S. Navy submarines, produces specialized close-tolerance equipment for various nuclear applications, and is involved in converting Cold War-era stockpiles of high-enriched uranium. Its responsibilities further extend to the receiving, storage, characterization, dissolution, recovery, and purification of uranium-bearing materials, alongside providing research reactor fuel elements for academic and national laboratories, and other defense-related components. The Nuclear Power Group caters to the commercial nuclear sector, offering a comprehensive range of products such as nuclear steam generators, fuel, fuel handling systems, pressure vessels, reactor components, heat exchangers, tooling delivery systems, and specialized containers. This group provides engineering and in-plant services for nuclear power facilities, overseeing the design, manufacturing, commissioning, and servicing of nuclear power generation equipment. It also delivers essential in-plant inspection, maintenance, and modification services, non-destructive examination, and tooling/repair solutions. Moreover, it is a key provider of medical radioisotopes and radiopharmaceuticals for research, diagnostic, and therapeutic applications. Finally, the Nuclear Services Group focuses on critical support functions, encompassing nuclear materials processing, environmental site remediation, and comprehensive management and operating services. This segment is also dedicated to advancing technology for nuclear power sources and plays a role in the design, engineering, licensing, and manufacturing of nuclear reactors. Founded in 1867 as The Babcock & Wilcox Company, the corporation adopted its current name, BWX Technologies, Inc., in June 2015, and is headquartered in Lynchburg, Virginia.
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Aerospace & Defense
- CEO
- Rex D. Geveden