TGM's two-stage DCF values BWX Technologies, Inc. (BWXT) between $34.05 and $79.19 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $51.73. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.9%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$147.47 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +32.9% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.9% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 7.7%/yr | 8.9% | $34.05 |
| Base case | 10.7%/yr | 7.9% | $51.73 |
| Optimistic | 13.7%/yr | 6.9% | $79.19 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 13, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $44.27 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$147.47
Market-Implied Growth
+32.9%/yr
vs +10.7% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$34.05 – $79.19
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for BWXT (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $233.6M · 0.09B shares · net debt $1.5B
Estimated Fair Value
$51.73
-64.9% vs $147.47
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 10.7%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $147.47; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.9% | $70.95 | $80.82 | $93.58 | $111 | $135 |
| 6.9% | $54.14 | $60.32 | $67.88 | $77.38 | $89.66 |
| 7.9% | $42.61 | $46.79 | $51.73 | $57.67 | $64.96 |
| 8.9% | $34.22 | $37.20 | $40.64 | $44.66 | $49.42 |
| 9.9% | $27.84 | $30.06 | $32.57 | $35.44 | $38.76 |