Box, Inc. (BOX) DCF Valuation
TGM's two-stage DCF values Box, Inc. (BOX) between $24.98 and $42.87 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $32.54. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (11.1%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$27.89 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +6.0% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.1% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 6.5%/yr | 12.1% | $24.98 |
| Base case | 9.5%/yr | 11.1% | $32.54 |
| Optimistic | 12.5%/yr | 10.1% | $42.87 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $33.05 | |
Current Price
$27.89
Market-Implied Growth
+6.0%/yr
vs +10.2% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$24.98 – $42.87
model output — not a price target
BOX DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for BOX (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $323.3M · 0.14B shares · net debt $572.3M
Estimated Fair Value
$32.54
+16.7% vs $27.89
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 9.5%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $27.89; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.1% | $38.98 | $41.41 | $44.21 | $47.45 | $51.27 |
| 10.1% | $33.73 | $35.55 | $37.60 | $39.94 | $42.64 |
| 11.1% | $29.58 | $30.98 | $32.54 | $34.30 | $36.28 |
| 12.1% | $26.22 | $27.33 | $28.55 | $29.90 | $31.41 |
| 13.1% | $23.44 | $24.34 | $25.32 | $26.39 | $27.57 |
About Box, Inc.
Box, Inc. delivers a robust cloud-based platform designed for comprehensive content management. This Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) solution empowers organizations of all scales to effortlessly manage, distribute, and access their digital assets across any device, from any location. Its rich feature set facilitates seamless internal and external collaboration, automates complex content-driven business processes, and supports the development of bespoke applications. Furthermore, the platform integrates critical data protection, stringent security protocols, and robust compliance tools, helping businesses meet diverse legal, regulatory, and industry-specific mandates, alongside their own internal governance policies. Accessible through dedicated web, mobile, and desktop applications, Box also provides an extensible platform for custom application development and offers specialized functionalities tailored for particular industries. As of January 31, 2022, the company served approximately 100,000 paying organizations, with its services available in 25 distinct languages. Its clientele spans key sectors such as financial services, healthcare, government, and legal services, both within the United States and internationally. Founded in 2005, the company initially operated as Box.net, Inc. before rebranding to Box, Inc. in November 2011. Its corporate headquarters are situated in California's San Francisco Bay Area.
- Sector
- Technology
- Industry
- Software - Application
- CEO
- Aaron Levie