TGM's two-stage DCF values Box, Inc. (BOX) between $24.98 and $42.87 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $32.54. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (11.1%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$32.65 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +9.6% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.1% required return — about in line with its track record.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 6.5%/yr | 12.1% | $24.98 |
| Base case | 9.5%/yr | 11.1% | $32.54 |
| Optimistic | 12.5%/yr | 10.1% | $42.87 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 16, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $30.73 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$32.65
Market-Implied Growth
+9.6%/yr
vs +10.2% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$24.98 – $42.87
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for BOX (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $323.3M · 0.14B shares · net debt $572.3M
Estimated Fair Value
$32.54
-0.3% vs $32.65
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 9.5%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $32.65; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.1% | $38.98 | $41.41 | $44.21 | $47.45 | $51.27 |
| 10.1% | $33.73 | $35.55 | $37.60 | $39.94 | $42.64 |
| 11.1% | $29.58 | $30.98 | $32.54 | $34.30 | $36.28 |
| 12.1% | $26.22 | $27.33 | $28.55 | $29.90 | $31.41 |
| 13.1% | $23.44 | $24.34 | $25.32 | $26.39 | $27.57 |
