TGM's two-stage DCF values BioNTech SE (BNTX) between $146.52 and $207.12 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $168.74. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (10.7%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$89.33 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -19.5% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.7% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 11.7% | $146.52 |
| Base case | 2.2%/yr | 10.7% | $168.74 |
| Optimistic | 5.2%/yr | 9.7% | $207.12 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 25, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $47.37 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$89.33
Market-Implied Growth
-19.5%/yr
vs +2.2% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$146.52 – $207.12
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for BNTX (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $2.7B · 0.25B shares · net cash $8.9B
Estimated Fair Value
$168.74
+88.9% vs $89.33
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.2%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $89.33; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.7% | $192 | $201 | $212 | $224 | $239 |
| 9.7% | $173 | $180 | $187 | $196 | $206 |
| 10.7% | $158 | $163 | $169 | $175 | $183 |
| 11.7% | $146 | $150 | $154 | $159 | $165 |
| 12.7% | $136 | $139 | $143 | $147 | $151 |
