Why we don't show a single “fair value” for BNTX
Even the conservative scenario ($239.37) sits far above today's price — trailing cash flows may be cyclically elevated. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$98.66 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -16.7% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.4% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 11.4% | $239.37 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 10.4% | $295.81 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 9.4% | $361.46 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 9, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $48.45 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$98.66
Market-Implied Growth
-16.7%/yr
vs +40.6% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$295.81
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for BNTX (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $2.7B · 0.25B shares · net cash $8.9B
Estimated Fair Value
$295.81
+199.8% vs $98.66
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $98.66; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.4% | $348 | $368 | $393 | $421 | $456 |
| 9.4% | $305 | $320 | $337 | $357 | $380 |
| 10.4% | $272 | $283 | $296 | $310 | $327 |
| 11.4% | $245 | $254 | $264 | $275 | $287 |
| 12.4% | $224 | $231 | $239 | $247 | $257 |
