The Buckle, Inc. (BKE) DCF Valuation
TGM's two-stage DCF values The Buckle, Inc. (BKE) between $56.76 and $95.92 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $72.65. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (9%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$43.24 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -9.4% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.9%/yr | 10.0% | $56.76 |
| Base case | 3.9%/yr | 9.0% | $72.65 |
| Optimistic | 6.9%/yr | 8.0% | $95.92 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $54.21 | |
Current Price
$43.24
Market-Implied Growth
-9.4%/yr
vs +3.9% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$56.76 – $95.92
model output — not a price target
BKE DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for BKE (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $208.9M · 0.05B shares · net cash $249.5M
Estimated Fair Value
$75.89
+75.5% vs $43.24
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 3.9%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $43.24; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $95.23 | $101 | $108 | $117 | $129 |
| 8.0% | $80.82 | $84.63 | $89.14 | $94.54 | $101 |
| 9.0% | $70.28 | $72.88 | $75.89 | $79.40 | $83.55 |
| 10.0% | $62.24 | $64.09 | $66.19 | $68.59 | $71.36 |
| 11.0% | $55.91 | $57.27 | $58.79 | $60.50 | $62.44 |
About The Buckle, Inc.
The Buckle, Inc. operates as a retailer of casual apparel, footwear, and accessories for men, women, and kids under the Buckle and Buckle Youth brands in the United States. The company markets a selection of brand name casual apparel, including denims, other casual bottoms, tops, sportswear, outerwear, accessories, and footwear, as well as private label merchandise comprising the BKE, Buckle Black, Ace High, Daytrip, Departwest, FITZ + EDDI, Freshwear, Gentry Country, Gilded Intent, Gimmicks, J.B. Holt, Maven Co-op, Modish Rebel, Nova Industries, Outpost Makers, Reclaim, Salvage, Sterling & Stitch, Veece, Willow & Root, 33 Coastal, and Funk Lagoon brands. It also provides services, such as hemming, gift-packaging, layaways, a guest loyalty program, the Buckle private label credit card, personalized stylist services, and a special-order system that allows stores to obtain specifically requested merchandise from other company stores or from its online order fulfillment center. The company was formerly known as Mills Clothing, Inc. and changed its name to The Buckle, Inc. in April 1991. The Buckle, Inc. was incorporated in 1948 and is headquartered in Kearney, Nebraska.
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Apparel - Retail
- CEO
- Dennis H. Nelson