TGM's two-stage DCF values The Buckle, Inc. (BKE) between $54.58 and $88.31 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $67.39. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (9.2%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$42.27 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -9.4% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.2% required return — about in line with its track record.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 10.2% | $54.58 |
| Base case | 2.7%/yr | 9.2% | $67.39 |
| Optimistic | 5.7%/yr | 8.2% | $88.31 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 13, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $49.21 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$42.27
Market-Implied Growth
-9.4%/yr
vs -8.7% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$54.58 – $88.31
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for BKE (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $208.9M · 0.05B shares · net cash $249.5M
Estimated Fair Value
$67.39
+59.4% vs $42.27
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.7%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $42.27; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.2% | $80.85 | $86.82 | $94.05 | $103 | $114 |
| 8.2% | $69.43 | $73.55 | $78.38 | $84.13 | $91.10 |
| 9.2% | $60.99 | $63.97 | $67.39 | $71.36 | $76.02 |
| 10.2% | $54.48 | $56.73 | $59.26 | $62.14 | $65.44 |
| 11.2% | $49.32 | $51.06 | $53.00 | $55.17 | $57.61 |
