TGM's two-stage DCF values The Buckle, Inc. (BKE) between $55.41 and $92.61 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $70.59. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (9.2%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$45.16 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -7.7% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.2% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.9%/yr | 10.2% | $55.41 |
| Base case | 3.9%/yr | 9.2% | $70.59 |
| Optimistic | 6.9%/yr | 8.2% | $92.61 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 12, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $51.32 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$45.16
Market-Implied Growth
-7.7%/yr
vs +3.9% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$55.41 – $92.61
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for BKE (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $208.9M · 0.05B shares · net cash $249.5M
Estimated Fair Value
$70.59
+56.3% vs $45.16
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 3.9%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $45.16; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.2% | $84.84 | $91.15 | $98.81 | $108 | $120 |
| 8.2% | $72.75 | $77.10 | $82.22 | $88.31 | $95.69 |
| 9.2% | $63.80 | $66.96 | $70.59 | $74.79 | $79.72 |
| 10.2% | $56.92 | $59.30 | $61.98 | $65.03 | $68.52 |
| 11.2% | $51.46 | $53.30 | $55.35 | $57.65 | $60.23 |
