TGM's two-stage DCF values BHP Group Limited (BHP) between $61.45 and $105.91 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $76.87. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use) (floored at 2%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.4%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$84.97 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +4.3% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.4% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 9.4% | $61.45 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 8.4% | $76.87 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 7.4% | $105.91 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 13, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $55.49 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$84.97
Market-Implied Growth
+4.3%/yr
vs -11.1% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$61.45 – $105.91
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for BHP (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $11.7B · 2.54B shares · net debt $4.3B
Estimated Fair Value
$76.87
-9.5% vs $84.97
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $84.97; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.4% | $96.10 | $105 | $117 | $132 | $152 |
| 7.4% | $79.48 | $85.56 | $92.86 | $102 | $113 |
| 8.4% | $67.69 | $71.92 | $76.87 | $82.73 | $89.77 |
| 9.4% | $58.88 | $61.98 | $65.52 | $69.60 | $74.38 |
| 10.4% | $52.05 | $54.40 | $57.04 | $60.03 | $63.44 |
