TGM's two-stage DCF values BHP Group Limited (BHP) between $60.26 and $111.86 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $80.29. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.3%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$90.34 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +5.9% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.3% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 9.3% | $60.26 |
| Base case | 3.2%/yr | 8.3% | $80.29 |
| Optimistic | 6.2%/yr | 7.3% | $111.86 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 12, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $56.33 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$90.34
Market-Implied Growth
+5.9%/yr
vs +2.8% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$60.26 – $111.86
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for BHP (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $11.7B · 2.54B shares · net debt $9.6B
Estimated Fair Value
$80.29
-11.1% vs $90.34
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 3.2%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $90.34; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.3% | $101 | $112 | $125 | $142 | $165 |
| 7.3% | $83.11 | $89.80 | $97.87 | $108 | $120 |
| 8.3% | $70.21 | $74.85 | $80.29 | $86.73 | $94.52 |
| 9.3% | $60.63 | $64.01 | $67.87 | $72.35 | $77.59 |
| 10.3% | $53.23 | $55.78 | $58.65 | $61.91 | $65.64 |
