TGM's two-stage DCF values Brown-Forman Corporation (BF-B) between $10.62 and $23.66 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $15.45. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$26.08 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +13.4% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 8.5% | $10.62 |
| Base case | 3.0%/yr | 7.5% | $15.45 |
| Optimistic | 6.0%/yr | 6.5% | $23.66 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 27, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $39.63 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$26.08
Market-Implied Growth
+13.4%/yr
vs +3.4% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$10.62 – $23.66
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for BF-B (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $444.0M · 0.48B shares · net debt $1.8B
Estimated Fair Value
$15.45
-40.8% vs $26.08
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 3.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $26.08; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $21.13 | $24.21 | $28.32 | $34.07 | $42.69 |
| 6.5% | $16.11 | $17.96 | $20.27 | $23.25 | $27.21 |
| 7.5% | $12.76 | $13.98 | $15.45 | $17.23 | $19.46 |
| 8.5% | $10.38 | $11.23 | $12.23 | $13.41 | $14.82 |
| 9.5% | $8.58 | $9.21 | $9.93 | $10.76 | $11.72 |
