Brown-Forman Corporation (BF-B) DCF Valuation
TGM's two-stage DCF values Brown-Forman Corporation (BF-B) between $10.99 and $24.47 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $15.98. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$26.68 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +13.2% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 8.5% | $10.99 |
| Base case | 3.0%/yr | 7.5% | $15.98 |
| Optimistic | 6.0%/yr | 6.5% | $24.47 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $40.95 | |
Current Price
$26.68
Market-Implied Growth
+13.2%/yr
vs +3.4% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$10.99 – $24.47
model output — not a price target
BF-B DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for BF-B (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $444.0M · 0.47B shares · net debt $1.8B
Estimated Fair Value
$16.36
-38.7% vs $26.68
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 3.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $26.68; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $23.42 | $26.24 | $30.01 | $35.27 | $43.18 |
| 6.5% | $17.84 | $19.46 | $21.47 | $24.07 | $27.52 |
| 7.5% | $14.13 | $15.14 | $16.36 | $17.84 | $19.69 |
| 8.5% | $11.49 | $12.16 | $12.95 | $13.88 | $14.99 |
| 9.5% | $9.50 | $9.98 | $10.51 | $11.13 | $11.86 |
About Brown-Forman Corporation
Brown-Forman Corporation, along with its subsidiaries, operates globally within the alcoholic beverage industry. The company is actively involved in the production, distillation, bottling, international trade (importing and exporting), marketing, and sale of a diverse portfolio of alcoholic products. Its extensive offerings encompass a wide variety of spirits, wines, and whiskey products, including specialty whiskey spirits and flavored whiskey liqueurs. The range also features convenient ready-to-drink and ready-to-pour options, pre-mixed cocktails, vodkas, tequilas, champagnes, brandy, bourbons, and other liqueurs. These beverages are primarily marketed under prominent brands such as Jack Daniel's, Reserve, Old Forester, Coopers' Craft, Herradura, el Jimador, New Mix, Korbel Champagnes, Sonoma-Cutrer, Finlandia, GlenDronach, Benriach, Glenglassaugh, Chambord, Slane, and Fords Gin. Beyond beverage sales, Brown-Forman also engages in the sale of used barrels, bulk whiskey, and wine, in addition to offering contract bottling services. The company's distribution model involves reaching retail customers and end consumers through independent distributors or state governments, while directly supplying retailers, wholesalers, and provincial governments. With a history dating back to its founding in 1870, Brown-Forman Corporation is headquartered in Louisville, Kentucky, and conducts substantial operations across the United States, Germany, Australia, the United Kingdom, Mexico, and numerous other international markets.
- Sector
- Consumer Defensive
- Industry
- Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries
- CEO
- Lawson E. Whiting