TGM's two-stage DCF values Brown-Forman Corporation (BF-B) between $10.99 and $23.28 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $15.15. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth (floored at 2%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$26.15 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +12.8% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 8.5% | $10.99 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 7.5% | $15.15 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 6.5% | $23.28 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 10, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $38.63 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$26.15
Market-Implied Growth
+12.8%/yr
vs +1.7% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$10.99 – $23.28
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for BF-B (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $444.0M · 0.47B shares · net debt $1.8B
Estimated Fair Value
$15.15
-42.1% vs $26.15
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $26.15; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $20.75 | $23.79 | $27.85 | $33.52 | $42.02 |
| 6.5% | $15.80 | $17.63 | $19.91 | $22.84 | $26.75 |
| 7.5% | $12.50 | $13.70 | $15.15 | $16.91 | $19.11 |
| 8.5% | $10.14 | $10.99 | $11.97 | $13.13 | $14.53 |
| 9.5% | $8.38 | $9.00 | $9.70 | $10.52 | $11.47 |
