Ball Corporation (BALL) DCF Valuation
A meaningful DCF fair value isn't available for Ball Corporation (BALL) — its free-cash-flow and net-debt profile makes a standard discounted-cash-flow model unreliable (common for loss-makers and high-net-debt or recently-public companies), and no analyst DCF is published. Explore your own assumptions with the editable model below.
What would today's price require?
$56.98 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +52.2% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.2% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 2.4%/yr | 10.2% | N/A |
| Base case | 5.4%/yr | 9.2% | N/A |
| Optimistic | 8.4%/yr | 8.2% | N/A |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $31.25 | |
Current Price
$56.98
Market-Implied Growth
+52.2%/yr
vs +8.3% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
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BALL DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for BALL (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $209.5M · 0.27B shares · net debt $5.8B
Estimated Fair Value
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These assumptions imply no positive equity value — try a higher growth or lower discount rate.
About Ball Corporation
Ball Corporation serves as a global provider of aluminum packaging solutions for a broad spectrum of industries, including beverages, personal care items, and household goods. Its extensive reach covers the United States, Brazil, and numerous international markets. The company's operations are strategically divided into four primary business segments: Beverage Packaging for North and Central America; Beverage Packaging for Europe, the Middle East, and Africa; Beverage Packaging for South America; and its dedicated Aerospace division. Within its packaging enterprise, Ball is a key manufacturer and supplier of aluminum beverage containers, catering to producers of carbonated soft drinks, beer, energy drinks, and other liquid products. Its product line also encompasses extruded aluminum aerosol containers, innovative reclosable aluminum bottles, aluminum cups, and aluminum slugs. Beyond packaging, Ball Corporation maintains a substantial presence in the aerospace sector. Here, it develops advanced spacecraft, intricate sensors and instruments, sophisticated radio frequency systems, and other cutting-edge technologies. These specialized offerings support civil, commercial, and national security aerospace initiatives. Its aerospace portfolio includes defense hardware, tactical antenna and video solutions, space hardware for both operational and civilian applications, and comprehensive systems engineering services. The company also undertakes the design, production, and rigorous testing of satellites, remote sensing devices, and associated ground control hardware and software, in addition to providing launch vehicle integration and satellite operational support. Furthermore, Ball supplies highly specialized components to government agencies and their prime contractors, such as target identification, warning, and attitude control systems; cryogenic systems with integrated sensor cooling devices; star trackers; and fast-steering mirrors. Established in 1880, Ball Corporation's corporate headquarters are located in Westminster, Colorado.
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Packaging & Containers
- CEO
- Ronald J. Lewis