TGM's two-stage DCF values AstraZeneca PLC (AZN) between $221.35 and $461.23 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $313.68. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$169.64 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +3.3% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 13.3%/yr | 8.5% | $221.35 |
| Base case | 16.3%/yr | 7.5% | $313.68 |
| Optimistic | 19.3%/yr | 6.5% | $461.23 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 27, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $1,090.11 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$169.64
Market-Implied Growth
+3.3%/yr
vs +15.7% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$221.35 – $461.23
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for AZN (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $7.3B · 0.77B shares · net debt $22.2B
Estimated Fair Value
$313.68
+84.9% vs $169.64
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 16.3%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $169.64; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $421 | $479 | $556 | $664 | $826 |
| 6.5% | $326 | $361 | $404 | $460 | $534 |
| 7.5% | $263 | $286 | $314 | $347 | $389 |
| 8.5% | $219 | $235 | $253 | $275 | $302 |
| 9.5% | $185 | $197 | $210 | $226 | $244 |
