TGM's two-stage DCF values Avery Dennison Corporation (AVY) between $93.07 and $210.65 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $139.64. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.2%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$170.65 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +9.5% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.2% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 2.8%/yr | 9.2% | $93.07 |
| Base case | 5.8%/yr | 8.2% | $139.64 |
| Optimistic | 8.8%/yr | 7.2% | $210.65 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 13, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $119.97 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$170.65
Market-Implied Growth
+9.5%/yr
vs +6.9% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$93.07 – $210.65
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for AVY (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $687.5M · 0.08B shares · net debt $3.5B
Estimated Fair Value
$139.64
-18.2% vs $170.65
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 5.8%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $170.65; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.2% | $188 | $212 | $242 | $282 | $336 |
| 7.2% | $146 | $161 | $180 | $203 | $232 |
| 8.2% | $117 | $127 | $140 | $154 | $172 |
| 9.2% | $95.01 | $103 | $111 | $122 | $134 |
| 10.2% | $78.34 | $84.10 | $90.59 | $97.97 | $106 |
