Avery Dennison Corporation (AVY) DCF Valuation
TGM's two-stage DCF values Avery Dennison Corporation (AVY) between $100.67 and $223.15 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $149.34. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.3%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$157.48 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +8.4% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.3% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 4.4%/yr | 9.3% | $100.67 |
| Base case | 7.4%/yr | 8.3% | $149.34 |
| Optimistic | 10.4%/yr | 7.3% | $223.15 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $136.63 | |
Current Price
$157.48
Market-Implied Growth
+8.4%/yr
vs +9.9% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$100.67 – $223.15
model output — not a price target
AVY DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for AVY (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $687.5M · 0.08B shares · net debt $3.5B
Estimated Fair Value
$185.83
+18.0% vs $157.48
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 7.4%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $157.48; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.3% | $260 | $285 | $318 | $360 | $417 |
| 7.3% | $203 | $219 | $238 | $261 | $291 |
| 8.3% | $163 | $174 | $186 | $200 | $218 |
| 9.3% | $134 | $141 | $149 | $159 | $170 |
| 10.3% | $111 | $116 | $122 | $129 | $136 |
About Avery Dennison Corporation
Avery Dennison Corporation, headquartered in Glendale, California, is a global enterprise specializing in the manufacturing and distribution of innovative pressure-sensitive materials and related product solutions. Its extensive operations cover regions across the United States, Europe, Asia, and Latin America. The company's business activities are structured into three main divisions: 1. Label and Graphic Materials: This segment provides a broad portfolio of pressure-sensitive label and packaging materials, alongside various graphic and reflective products. Prominent brands under this division include Fasson, JAC, Avery Dennison, and Mactac, offering durable cast and reflective films. These materials serve a wide array of industries, including home and personal care, food, beverages (including beer, wine, and spirits), durable goods, and pharmaceuticals. Additionally, they are crucial for architectural, commercial signage, digital printing, construction, automotive, and fleet transportation applications, as well as traffic and safety solutions, catering to sign shops, commercial printers, and designers. 2. Retail Branding and Information Solutions: This division focuses on designing, producing, and selling brand embellishments, graphic tickets, tags, labels, and sustainable packaging. It also offers creative services, advanced radio-frequency identification (RFID) products, visibility and loss prevention systems, price ticketing and marking solutions, and tools for ensuring compliance with care, content, and country of origin regulations. Furthermore, it provides robust brand protection and security solutions. Its customer base includes retailers, brand owners, apparel manufacturers, distributors, and various industrial clients. 3. Industrial and Healthcare Materials: Within this segment, Avery Dennison supplies an assortment of tapes, pressure-sensitive adhesive-based materials, converted products, medical fasteners, and high-performance polymers under brands like Fasson, Avery Dennison, and Yongle. These specialized offerings are vital to a range of sectors, including automotive, electronics, building and construction, general industrial applications, personal care, and medical markets. The company was founded in 1935 and was initially known as Avery International Corporation, before officially changing its name to Avery Dennison Corporation in 1990.
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Packaging & Containers
- CEO
- Deon Stander