ATI Inc. (ATI) DCF Valuation
Why we don't show a single “fair value” for ATI
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($15.63) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 5.6%/yr | 10.0% | $4.31 |
| Base case | 8.6%/yr | 9.0% | $8.91 |
| Optimistic | 11.6%/yr | 8.0% | $15.63 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $38.93 | |
Current Price
$198.48
Market-Implied Growth
—
Base-Case Model Value
$8.91
model output — not a price target
ATI DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for ATI (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $131.1M · 0.14B shares · net debt $1.4B
Estimated Fair Value
$13.43
-93.2% vs $198.48
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 8.6%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $198.48; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $20.41 | $22.58 | $25.23 | $28.54 | $32.80 |
| 8.0% | $15.18 | $16.58 | $18.24 | $20.24 | $22.67 |
| 9.0% | $11.36 | $12.32 | $13.43 | $14.73 | $16.26 |
| 10.0% | $8.47 | $9.15 | $9.93 | $10.81 | $11.83 |
| 11.0% | $6.20 | $6.70 | $7.26 | $7.89 | $8.61 |
About ATI Inc.
Globally, ATI Inc. stands as a premier manufacturer and supplier of specialized materials and complex components. The enterprise's operations are strategically divided into two primary divisions: High Performance Materials & Components (HPMC) and Advanced Alloys & Solutions (AA&S). The HPMC segment is responsible for creating a diverse range of advanced substances, including titanium and its numerous alloys, nickel- and cobalt-based alloys (such as superalloys), sophisticated powdered alloys, and other distinctive specialty materials. These are offered in elongated product forms like ingots, billets, bars, rods, wires, various structural shapes, rectangular sections, and seamless tubing. Additionally, this division engineers precision forgings, finished components, and custom-machined parts, primarily catering to the aerospace, defense, medical, and energy industries. In contrast, the AA&S segment focuses on producing zirconium and its associated alloys, which include hafnium and niobium, alongside nickel-based alloys, titanium and its specific alloys, and other unique high-performance alloys. These are commonly supplied as plates, sheets, and meticulously rolled strip products. This segment further extends its services to include hot-rolling conversion for materials like carbon steel and titanium products. The offerings from AA&S find critical applications across the energy, aerospace and defense, automotive, and electronics sectors. Formerly known as Allegheny Technologies Incorporated, ATI Inc. was established in 1960 and currently maintains its corporate headquarters in Dallas, Texas.
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Manufacturing - Metal Fabrication
- CEO
- Kimberly A. Fields