Why we don't show a single “fair value” for ATI
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($16.14) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 5.6%/yr | 9.9% | $4.52 |
| Base case | 8.6%/yr | 8.9% | $9.22 |
| Optimistic | 11.6%/yr | 7.9% | $16.14 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 29, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $38.53 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$177.92
Market-Implied Growth
N/A
Base-Case Model Value
$9.22
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for ATI (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $131.1M · 0.14B shares · net debt $1.4B
Estimated Fair Value
$9.22
-94.8% vs $177.92
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 8.6%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $177.92; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.9% | $13.84 | $15.95 | $18.54 | $21.79 | $25.99 |
| 7.9% | $9.89 | $11.32 | $13.01 | $15.05 | $17.54 |
| 8.9% | $7.02 | $8.04 | $9.22 | $10.60 | $12.23 |
| 9.9% | $4.84 | $5.60 | $6.46 | $7.44 | $8.58 |
| 10.9% | $3.12 | $3.71 | $4.36 | $5.09 | $5.92 |
