Why we don't show a single “fair value” for ATI
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($17.38) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 8.1%/yr | 10.2% | $5.45 |
| Base case | 11.1%/yr | 9.2% | $10.31 |
| Optimistic | 14.1%/yr | 8.2% | $17.38 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 13, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $33.50 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$198.77
Market-Implied Growth
N/A
Base-Case Model Value
$10.31
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for ATI (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $131.1M · 0.14B shares · net debt $1.4B
Estimated Fair Value
$10.31
-94.8% vs $198.77
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 11.1%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $198.77; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.2% | $15.03 | $17.12 | $19.65 | $22.78 | $26.76 |
| 8.2% | $11.03 | $12.47 | $14.16 | $16.17 | $18.61 |
| 9.2% | $8.08 | $9.12 | $10.31 | $11.70 | $13.33 |
| 10.2% | $5.81 | $6.59 | $7.47 | $8.48 | $9.63 |
| 11.2% | $4.01 | $4.62 | $5.29 | $6.05 | $6.90 |
