Why we don't show a single “fair value” for ATI
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($17.90) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 8.1%/yr | 10.1% | $5.67 |
| Base case | 11.1%/yr | 9.1% | $10.65 |
| Optimistic | 14.1%/yr | 8.1% | $17.90 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 10, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $34.64 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$198.77
Market-Implied Growth
N/A
Base-Case Model Value
$10.65
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for ATI (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $131.1M · 0.14B shares · net debt $1.4B
Estimated Fair Value
$10.65
-94.6% vs $198.77
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 11.1%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $198.77; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.1% | $15.51 | $17.68 | $20.33 | $23.62 | $27.82 |
| 8.1% | $11.37 | $12.86 | $14.62 | $16.72 | $19.27 |
| 9.1% | $8.34 | $9.41 | $10.65 | $12.08 | $13.77 |
| 10.1% | $6.01 | $6.82 | $7.72 | $8.76 | $9.95 |
| 11.1% | $4.18 | $4.80 | $5.49 | $6.26 | $7.14 |
