ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) DCF Valuation
Why we don't show a single “fair value” for ASML
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($647.29) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$1,929.68 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +55.7% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 12.0% | $424.52 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 11.0% | $528.74 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 10.0% | $647.29 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $343.61 | |
Current Price
$1,929.68
Market-Implied Growth
+55.7%/yr
vs +22.1% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$528.74
model output — not a price target
ASML DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for ASML (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $8.7B · 0.39B shares · net cash $12.0B
Estimated Fair Value
$852.34
-55.8% vs $1929.68
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $1929.68; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.0% | $1063 | $1115 | $1174 | $1244 | $1326 |
| 10.0% | $912 | $949 | $991 | $1039 | $1093 |
| 11.0% | $795 | $822 | $852 | $886 | $925 |
| 12.0% | $702 | $722 | $744 | $769 | $797 |
| 13.0% | $626 | $641 | $658 | $677 | $698 |
About ASML Holding N.V.
ASML Holding N.V., founded in 1984 and based in Veldhoven, the Netherlands, is a leading provider of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment for chipmakers. Known as ASM Lithography Holding N.V. until its name change in 2001, the company is involved in the design, production, sales, marketing, and servicing of these critical systems. Its comprehensive product lineup includes sophisticated lithography, metrology, and inspection systems. ASML's lithography offerings feature cutting-edge extreme ultraviolet (EUV) systems, as well as deep ultraviolet (DUV) solutions, encompassing both immersion and dry technologies, engineered to facilitate the creation of a wide array of semiconductor nodes and technologies. The company also delivers specialized metrology and inspection tools, such as its YieldStar optical metrology systems for assessing pattern quality on silicon wafers, and HMI electron beam solutions for precisely locating and analyzing individual defects in chips. Furthermore, ASML provides computational lithography solutions and software for controlling its lithography systems. Its service portfolio includes refurbishing and upgrading existing equipment, alongside extensive customer support. ASML maintains a significant global presence, operating across key regions including Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, China, the wider Asian market, the Netherlands, other European countries, the Middle East, Africa, and the United States.
- Sector
- Technology
- Industry
- Semiconductors
- CEO
- Christophe D. Fouquet