Why we don't show a single “fair value” for ASML
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($540.80) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$1,693.34 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +51.7% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 9.1%/yr | 12.0% | $345.30 |
| Base case | 12.1%/yr | 11.0% | $427.85 |
| Optimistic | 15.1%/yr | 10.0% | $540.80 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 5, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $338.88 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$1,693.34
Market-Implied Growth
+51.7%/yr
vs +8.4% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$427.85
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for ASML (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $8.7B · 0.39B shares · net cash $12.0B
Estimated Fair Value
$427.85
-74.7% vs $1693.34
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 12.1%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $1693.34; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.0% | $499 | $527 | $558 | $594 | $638 |
| 10.0% | $441 | $461 | $484 | $510 | $541 |
| 11.0% | $395 | $410 | $428 | $447 | $470 |
| 12.0% | $358 | $370 | $384 | $399 | $415 |
| 13.0% | $327 | $337 | $348 | $360 | $373 |
