TGM's two-stage DCF values Array Technologies, Inc. (ARRY) between $7.91 and $14.24 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $10.60. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (11.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$4.06 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -7.7% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 6.2%/yr | 12.5% | $7.91 |
| Base case | 9.2%/yr | 11.5% | $10.60 |
| Optimistic | 12.2%/yr | 10.5% | $14.24 |
Current Price
$4.06
Market-Implied Growth
-7.7%/yr
vs +9.2% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$7.91 – $14.24
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for ARRY (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $138.8M · 0.15B shares · net debt $424.6M
Estimated Fair Value
$10.60
+161.1% vs $4.06
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 9.2%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $4.06; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $12.85 | $13.67 | $14.61 | $15.69 | $16.95 |
| 10.5% | $11.03 | $11.65 | $12.35 | $13.14 | $14.05 |
| 11.5% | $9.58 | $10.06 | $10.60 | $11.20 | $11.88 |
| 12.5% | $8.39 | $8.78 | $9.21 | $9.67 | $10.20 |
| 13.5% | $7.41 | $7.72 | $8.07 | $8.44 | $8.85 |
