TGM's two-stage DCF values Array Technologies, Inc. (ARRY) between $8.89 and $15.84 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $11.85. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (11.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$5.92 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -1.7% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 8.5%/yr | 12.5% | $8.89 |
| Base case | 11.5%/yr | 11.5% | $11.85 |
| Optimistic | 14.5%/yr | 10.5% | $15.84 |
Current Price
$5.92
Market-Implied Growth
-1.7%/yr
vs +11.1% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$8.89 – $15.84
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for ARRY (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $138.8M · 0.15B shares · net debt $424.6M
Estimated Fair Value
$11.85
+99.9% vs $5.92
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 11.5%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $5.92; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $14.33 | $15.24 | $16.29 | $17.48 | $18.88 |
| 10.5% | $12.32 | $13.01 | $13.78 | $14.66 | $15.67 |
| 11.5% | $10.71 | $11.25 | $11.85 | $12.51 | $13.26 |
| 12.5% | $9.40 | $9.83 | $10.30 | $10.82 | $11.39 |
| 13.5% | $8.31 | $8.66 | $9.04 | $9.45 | $9.90 |
