Array Technologies, Inc. (ARRY) DCF Valuation
TGM's two-stage DCF values Array Technologies, Inc. (ARRY) between $8.91 and $15.87 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $11.87. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (11.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$8.00 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +3.7% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 8.5%/yr | 12.5% | $8.91 |
| Base case | 11.5%/yr | 11.5% | $11.87 |
| Optimistic | 14.5%/yr | 10.5% | $15.87 |
Current Price
$8.00
Market-Implied Growth
+3.7%/yr
vs +11.1% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$8.91 – $15.87
model output — not a price target
ARRY DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for ARRY (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $138.8M · 0.15B shares · net debt $424.6M
Estimated Fair Value
$16.54
+106.7% vs $8.00
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 11.5%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $8.00; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $20.94 | $21.92 | $23.05 | $24.35 | $25.87 |
| 10.5% | $17.86 | $18.57 | $19.37 | $20.28 | $21.32 |
| 11.5% | $15.42 | $15.95 | $16.54 | $17.19 | $17.93 |
| 12.5% | $13.45 | $13.85 | $14.29 | $14.78 | $15.32 |
| 13.5% | $11.82 | $12.13 | $12.47 | $12.84 | $13.25 |
About Array Technologies, Inc.
Array Technologies, Inc. (ARRY) develops, manufactures, and provides solar tracking solutions and complementary products for customers both within the United States and internationally. A key offering is the DuraTrack HZ v3, a system designed for single-axis solar panel tracking. Additionally, the company offers SmarTrack, an intelligent software powered by machine learning that continuously determines the optimal alignment for solar arrays in real time to maximize energy output. This enterprise was established in 1989 and its corporate headquarters are situated in Albuquerque, New Mexico.
- Sector
- Energy
- Industry
- Solar
- CEO
- Kevin G. Hostetler