TGM's two-stage DCF values Aptiv PLC (APTV) between $34.57 and $73.24 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $50.83. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (10.7%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$43.77 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +1.2% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.7% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.6%/yr | 11.7% | $34.57 |
| Base case | 3.6%/yr | 10.7% | $50.83 |
| Optimistic | 6.6%/yr | 9.7% | $73.24 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 13, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $127.61 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$43.77
Market-Implied Growth
+1.2%/yr
vs +13.0% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$34.57 – $73.24
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for APTV (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.3B · 0.21B shares · net debt $5.7B
Estimated Fair Value
$50.83
+16.1% vs $43.77
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 3.6%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $43.77; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.7% | $64.58 | $69.92 | $76.11 | $83.38 | $92.03 |
| 9.7% | $53.27 | $57.22 | $61.71 | $66.86 | $72.83 |
| 10.7% | $44.43 | $47.45 | $50.83 | $54.64 | $58.97 |
| 11.7% | $37.33 | $39.69 | $42.31 | $45.23 | $48.49 |
| 12.7% | $31.50 | $33.39 | $35.47 | $37.76 | $40.28 |
