Aptiv PLC (APTV) DCF Valuation
TGM's two-stage DCF values Aptiv PLC (APTV) between $39.47 and $81.39 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $57.09. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (10.7%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$62.87 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +7.2% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.7% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 2.5%/yr | 11.7% | $39.47 |
| Base case | 5.5%/yr | 10.7% | $57.09 |
| Optimistic | 8.5%/yr | 9.7% | $81.39 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $120.85 | |
Current Price
$62.87
Market-Implied Growth
+7.2%/yr
vs +1.9% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$39.47 – $81.39
model output — not a price target
APTV DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for APTV (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.3B · 0.21B shares · net debt $5.7B
Estimated Fair Value
$65.16
+3.6% vs $62.87
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 5.5%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $62.87; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.7% | $85.98 | $90.95 | $96.73 | $104 | $112 |
| 9.7% | $71.24 | $74.74 | $78.73 | $83.31 | $88.63 |
| 10.7% | $59.77 | $62.31 | $65.16 | $68.39 | $72.06 |
| 11.7% | $50.58 | $52.48 | $54.59 | $56.93 | $59.57 |
| 12.7% | $43.08 | $44.53 | $46.11 | $47.87 | $49.81 |
About Aptiv PLC
Aptiv PLC operates globally, specializing in the design, manufacturing, and sale of essential components for vehicles. The company delivers advanced electrical, electronic, and safety solutions for both the automotive and commercial vehicle sectors. Its operations are structured into two main divisions: Signal and Power Solutions, and Advanced Safety and User Experience. The Signal and Power Solutions segment is responsible for engineering, producing, and assembling a vehicle's electrical architecture. This includes a range of products such as engineered components, various connectors, complete wiring assemblies and harnesses, cable management systems, electrical centers, and sophisticated hybrid high-voltage and safety distribution systems. The Advanced Safety and User Experience segment, conversely, provides vital hardware, systems integration services, and software development focused on enhancing vehicle safety, security, comfort, and convenience. Its offerings encompass cutting-edge sensing and perception systems, electronic control units (ECUs), multi-domain controllers, advanced vehicle connectivity platforms, specialized application software, and pioneering autonomous driving technologies. Originally known as Delphi Automotive PLC, the company rebranded to Aptiv PLC in December 2017. Founded in 2011, Aptiv PLC is headquartered in Dublin, Ireland.
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Auto - Parts
- CEO
- Kevin Clark