TGM's two-stage DCF values Aptiv PLC (APTV) between $38.66 and $79.70 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $55.94. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (10.8%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$56.47 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +5.7% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.8% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 2.5%/yr | 11.8% | $38.66 |
| Base case | 5.5%/yr | 10.8% | $55.94 |
| Optimistic | 8.5%/yr | 9.8% | $79.70 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 1, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $122.00 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$56.47
Market-Implied Growth
+5.7%/yr
vs +1.9% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$38.66 – $79.70
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for APTV (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.3B · 0.21B shares · net debt $5.7B
Estimated Fair Value
$55.94
-0.9% vs $56.47
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 5.5%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $56.47; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.8% | $70.61 | $76.26 | $82.81 | $90.47 | $99.57 |
| 9.8% | $58.57 | $62.76 | $67.53 | $72.98 | $79.29 |
| 10.8% | $49.13 | $52.34 | $55.94 | $59.99 | $64.58 |
| 11.8% | $41.53 | $44.06 | $46.85 | $49.95 | $53.42 |
| 12.8% | $35.29 | $37.32 | $39.53 | $41.97 | $44.67 |
