Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) DCF Valuation
Transparent DCF models put Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)'s fair value in a range of $23.27 – $79.31 — the low end is TGM's conservative base case (5% FCF growth, 10% discount), the high end the analyst consensus (FMP). Today's price of $244.19 sits above that range — by these conservative assumptions it looks richly valued; the reverse-DCF below is the better lens for a high-growth name.
Reverse DCF: at today's $244.19, the market is pricing in roughly +39.0%/yr free-cash-flow growth over the next decade (at a 10% required return) — versus its actual 5-year FCF CAGR of -21.6%. The price is betting on acceleration above its track record.
Current Price
$244.19
Fair-Value Range
$23.27 – $79.31
Market-Implied Growth
+39.0%/yr
vs -21.6% 5Y actual
AMZN DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Illustrative model — not investment advice. Defaults to a conservative base case; the analyst (FMP) DCF, where available, is shown as a reference below.
Base inputs: FCF $14.0B · 10.76B shares · net cash $21.2B
Estimated Fair Value
$23.27
-90.5% vs $244.19
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 5.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $244.19; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0% | $28.44 | $29.79 | $31.40 | $33.32 | $35.67 |
| 9.0% | $24.70 | $25.63 | $26.70 | $27.95 | $29.43 |
| 10.0% | $21.86 | $22.52 | $23.27 | $24.12 | $25.11 |
| 11.0% | $19.62 | $20.11 | $20.65 | $21.25 | $21.94 |
| 12.0% | $17.82 | $18.18 | $18.58 | $19.03 | $19.53 |